ES review & plan

After the very balanced range last week and this Monday, we finally had an imbalanced move higher breaking through the 2043.75 high. This leaves a decent volume area for bulls to defend going forward between 2030-40, with 2036 the micro composite VPOC.

The opening drive left a 4.75 point spike and one timeframed higher for the day until the last hour when there was an inventory correction and close at the VWAP. A poor high has been left at 2054.00.

This shows a renko chart with the VWAP and 1,2 & 3 standard deviation bands with cumulative delta bars below.

Divergence in the cumulative delta can be seen prior to the new price highs and subsequent correction to the VWAP exactly at the close.

Bulls need to defend the C period pullback low at 2044.00 (top of the spike) or risk a liquidation break back into the prior range. The initial upside target remains the 2069.25 measured move.

The Fed minutes are released at 13:00 cst so we should see a pick up in volatility but don't intend having a position into the release. If there are long opportunities in the morning based on yesterday's levels I may take them but I'll probably sit out until after the release of the minutes.

If the news is received badly prices will likely fall back into prior balance, but if last week's range breaks we could see a long anticipated liquidation break through multiple downside levels of swing lows, LVNs and HVNs. Not a high odds scenario today but still a possibility with headline risk.