Thursday Prep

Given the overnight move yesterday, we knew that the market had got pretty short ahead of the open. The first destination was an exact fill of the range gap followed by a reversal down to test last Friday's low (2708.75) which left a 1 tick failure. Most of the time and volume was spent below the prior day's low until an afternoon squeeze pushed up as high as the prior day's initial balance low forcing a lot of shorts to cover. 

Overnight so far has held the upper half of yesterday's RTH session. The range is currently 2720.25-33.25 on light volume. Rates have been firm with the 10yr back down to 2.98% from the recent high of 3.12%. 

Zones of interest for today are below. The market remains in a range short term. If the 2720-21.50 zone can hold today buyers could dominate and attempt a push to the top of this range again (into 2741-45.50 zone). If the 20-21.50 zone fails I'd look for a buying response at yesterday's VPOC on first test (13-15 zone), though if it runs through there I'd be looking for a run down to the 2700-03.25 zone.

Wednesday Prep

We got a failed attempt to break through the multi time frame expected resistance zone early yesterday. Underlying stock momentum was lacklustre (see NYSE TICK on pushes into resistance). Once the early break lower had taken place, there was another good R:R short opportunity on the retest of the overnight high. Volume has been very light for the past few sessions (sub 1m contracts). If there is a lack of strength and fuel on the way up (i.e. broad market strength and volume) then the chances increase of revisiting the weak structure below (single prints, gaps etc).

Overnight the sell-off has accelerated with a range so far of 2704.50-2726.25 versus settlement at 2726.00

Currently we're looking to open on a wide gap lower. Given the market has got very short overnight we could see some covering and attempt to fill the gap, though I see potential resistance in the 2716-18.50 zone initially. I've adjusted my zones slightly for today below. I would expect a buy response in the 2700.00-03.25 zone given last week's low at 2700.50, though if that fails first target is 2693.50 (composite HVN)

Monday Prep

As we can see on the daily chart above, ES has broken and is holding above the consolidation triangle pattern formed over the past few months and remains above last month's high at 2718.50. This continues to be the edge of the short term bull/bear zone for me. The next expected area of multi time frame selling is in the 2741.00-45.50 zone above. There is an RTH open range gap from the 3/16 low at 2752.75 to the 3/19 high at 2745.25.

There was a gap higher overnight on the open as trade tensions eased temporarily between the US and China. The range is currently 2724.25-36.25 versus settlement at 2713.00. The larger the gap, the less likely it is to fill on the day. If we see an early attempt to partially fill the gap and it fails to take out and hold below the overnight low, I'd expect to see buyers dominate and attempt higher. Acceptance below the overnight low could see a re-test of the micro bull/bear zone and potentially low depending on market state. Today's zones of interest are shown below:

Wednesday Prep

The overnight breakdown through the micro bull/bear put the short term bias as negative going into yesterday's open. We got a push down into the 2700.00-03.50 gap down with up to a 12 point rally from first test of that zone. Trade was very rotational for most of the session and volume picked up at 1.4m contracts.

Overnight has traded  2704.50-14.75 so far, within yesterday's RTH range and versus settlement at 2709.00. There are an increasing amount of potential resistance zones above given the previous day's price action and the 2700.00-03.50 zone will weaken the more times it gets tested and 2690.50-93.25 zone becomes next target below. If prices do push higher there could be a short squeeze to retest the 18.50-20 micro bull/bear if there's enough volume and momentum plus broad market participation.

Zones of interest for today are below:

Tuesday Prep

Opening in the 32-34 zone yesterday, the initial rally failed one tick above the overnight high. Volume was very low on the day at 924k and two distributions were left with the majority of time and volume spent lower, within the prior day's range. 

Overnight the market moved slightly lower, tagging the 18.50-20.50 micro bull/bear zone. The strong rally of the past week or so is running out of steam, but that doesn't necessarily signify a reversal. Holding back below 18.50 puts the market in a more neutral/negative state short term in my view and could see short term long liquidation and revisiting of the weak structure left on the way up. 

Today's zones of interest are below. Retail sales are due at 08:30 ET for how consumer spending went in April, consensus expecting a 0.3% gain m/m.

Monday Prep

The short term bullish bias continued on Friday with price balanced between the micro bull/bear zone and initial resistance for most of the session, with a brief attempt to break below which failed. Daily value was left overlapping higher leaving the gap and weak structure from previous days untested on the week.

Overnight so far we've seen another move higher, with the range currently 2727.25-41.00. The 2742.25-45.25 initial resistance zone represents a key reversal area from March as well as a composite low volume area. If we have a push into that zone and buyers fail to get through, I would expect a move back down into the 2718.50-20.50 micro bull/bear zone. Holding above 2545.25 puts the squeeze on shorts even more as another daily swing high gets taken out. However, I would expect a selling response at IR on first test...we'll see.

Zones of interest for today are below:

Friday Prep

Yesterday's weaker than expected CPI data kept a bid under the market and pushed through the initial resistance zone before the market open, leaving a gap above the prior day's RTH high. This zone acted as support once broken and was the launching point of another strong rally which took out the April high (2718.50).

With the 130 point low to high range of the month so far, shorts have continually been forced to cover, accentuating the moves higher. One thing that seemed odd yesterday was that despite the strong price rally, underlying stock momentum showed on the NYSE TICK was not particularly strong. Volume was fairly low too at just 1.1m contracts. If the rally is to continue the really major test above in my view is the 2742.25-45.25 zone which represents a key breakdown area from mid-March. Ahead of that the 2732.00-34.00 zone was also a pivotal area from March which could see sellers step in again.

Overnight so far the range is 2716.25-26.75 versus settlement at 2718.75. I'm using 2718.50-20.50 as a micro bull/bear zone on the day timeframe. Acceptance either side of that zone today could help establish the dominant side, though clearly all the short term trends remain bullish within a  very large range. My zones of interest for today are below:

Thursday Prep

Going into yesterday the basic plan was: 'Short term bullish bias if the 68.25-70.75 zone holds or it could turn neutral again. Holding above the 81-82.25 micro bull/bear could see a squeeze higher.' The test lower in the morning didn't quite make it to the 68.25-70.75 zone though left a poor low where shorts got trapped. You can clearly see below the early attempts to test the micro bull/bear failed until the fourth attempt where we got the short squeeze - seen by the single prints in the profile above.

Overnight so far the market has been in a tight range and has tested the 2702.75-04.75 zone with a range of 2692.75-02.75 so far. CPI is due at 07:30 ET which has potential to be a catalyst for some action if there are any surprises versus consensus.

I'm using Initial support at the 2690.50-93.25 zone and resistance at 2702.75-04.75. A break below 2690.50 could see the single prints filled in from yesterday and retest the breakout area. Broken support above then becomes resistance on any move back up.

If things turn really negative and yesterday's low get taken out we could see a more serious liquidation to challenge last Friday's breakout, though we'd need some very negative news to do that today.

If initial support holds and buyers push through initial resistance, the next target is the 2716.75-20.50 zone.

Today's zones of interest are below. Yesterday's prominent VPOC at 2696.00 could also act as support if buyers have control again today.

Wednesday Prep

The daily chart above shows the volume at price since the start of the year (left profile)and we can see price has made a bullish recovery over the past few sessions and is looking like it wants to breakout to the upside. This is going to need volume and momentum, together with broad market strength or else this could lead to a false move. If this does turn out to be a false move then the weak structure left from last Friday could be revisited sooner rather than later. If, however, the rally does have legs then the next major upswing swing high is at 2718.50 (a poor high left in the 4/17 overnight session). Although I don't use trend lines per se in my analysis, I need to be aware that many do and the upper trendline on the daily is also shown (around the 2704 level today).

Yesterday's profile balanced overlapping below Monday, though still supportive of Friday's bullish move. Trading got choppy in the afternoon with headlines about Iran, sometimes false, took crude on a rollercoaster ride.

Overnight so far, the range is 2666.50-84.50 versus settlement at 2670.25.

PPI-FD is due at 07:30 ET and a 10 Year Note auction at 12:00 ET. Zones of interest for today are shown below. Short term bullish bias if the 68.25-70.75 zone holds or it could turn neutral again. Holding above the 81-82.25 micro bull/bear could see a squeeze higher.

Tuesday Prep

We did get a move higher into the 81.00-83.75 zone yesterday after opening just above the prior high. There was a lack of upward momentum and volume to support the rally, which eventually fell back to close the settlement gap. 

Overnight so far has drifted lower to test the 57.00-58.75 zone, with the range currently 2658.50-72.25. We have extra geopolitical risk with Trump's update on the Iran deal - WTI crude is currently down about $1 at $69.80 with record long positioning in the contract. 

If the market can hold above the 57.00-58.50 support zone we could see an attempt to retest yesterday's high, though I'd expect the 69.50-72.50 zone to be the first major hurdle for buyers. If we see 57.00 break and hold below, a move lower into the next two zones is possible depending on weakness. 2647.00 is the month's VPOC so would be looking for a reaction there. 

Zones of interest for today are below: